New YouGov Welsh poll

YouGov have published their monthly Welsh voting intention poll for ITV Wales. The topline figures are as follows:

Constituency vote: CON 21%, LAB 45%, LDEM 7%, Plaid 21% Regional vote: CON 20%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, Plaid 21%

Note that YouGov have switched over to using likelihood to vote weighting for the Welsh assembly question in advance of the election in March. This month that reduced Labour support by 2 points and increased Plaid support by 1 in both sections.

By my reckoning these figures, on a uniform swing and assuming Labour will get Blaenau Gwent back, Labour will win an overall majority with 31 seats, with Plaid on 14, the Conservatives on 10 and the Lib Dems 5.

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