New YouGov eve-of-poll figures

I suppose writing a final round-up was tempting fate somewhat! YouGov have conducted a final poll for the European elections, to be published in tomorrow's Telegraph and just released on Sky. Topline figures, with changes from the their last poll, are CON 26%(-1), LAB 16%(-1), LDEM 15%(nc), UKIP 18%(+2), GRN 10%(+1), BNP 5%(-2). The poll was conducted yesterday evening and today, so it is very up to date. Sample size was a hefty 4000.

Not a vast change in the last few days, but a marginal shift towards smaller parties. Perhaps the two most significant things there are Labour dropping to third place behind UKIP (though of course, UKIP, Labour and the Lib Dems are all still very close and it could go every way) - expectations for Labour must be getting so low that if they do manage to hold second place it would be seen as something of a victory - and secondly the BNP dropping to 5%. On a uniform swing that wouldn't be enough for them to gain any seats, though of course, it is possible that they could do so if their vote is concentrated in the right places.

UPDATE: The second set of figures in the poll are being reported on Sky as Westminster voting intention figures, and in the Telegraph's initial report as an all expressing an intention European intention. My understanding is that Sky are right - these are the latest Westminster voting intentions (they'd be a bit odd for European voting intentions anyway). So, with changes from the last YouGov Westminster poll, the figures are CON 37%(-2), LAB 21%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). The others are shared between 8% for UKIP, 5% for the Greens, 4% for the SNP and PC, 4% for the BNP.