New YouGov and ComRes polls
The other two polls out tonight are YouGov for the Sun and ComRes for the Indy and ITV. YouGov have topline figures of CON 39%(+2), LAB 33%(+2), LDEM 20%(nc). Yesterday's 3 point drop in Conservative support from 40% to 37% looked rather odd and they have bounced back up to 39%, however the lead has remained static as Labour gain at the expense of others, pushed right down to a total of 8 points.
In YouGov's topical questions they asked about whether Labour would deliver on the promises in their manifesto is elected. I half expected the public to react with the cynical assumption that politicians would break all their promises and not deliver any of them, but actually their responses were more nuanced. 42% expected them to deliver their promise of reducing pensioners' heating bills (32% did not) and 39% expected them to deliver on allowing successful schools and hospitals to take over failing ones (31% did not) - so two pledges people expect Labour to keep.
In contrast, only 24% expected them to deliver on making it easier to sack failing police chiefs (40% do not), 27% expect them to keep the promose not to raise income tax, but 55% do not (including 19% of their own supporters), and on their immigration pledge to stop immigrants with poor English from taking public sector jobs only 18% think they will deliver, with 60% thinking they would break the promise.
ComRes meanwhile have topline figures, with changes from their poll at the weekend, of CON 37%(-2), LAB 30%(-2), LDEM 20%(+4). I said at the weekend that the 16% score for the Liberal Democrats in ComRes's last poll looked strange and I expected it to bounce back in the next poll, and lo and behold it had. These figures are actually the same as the ComRes poll before last, so leaving that Lib Dem blip aside ComRes are actually showing a pretty steady picture.
In ComRes's other questions they asked about the national insurance rise - 48% agreed with the Conservatives pledge to oppose the rise, with 35% disagreeing.
