New YouGov and ComRes polls

There are two new voting intention polls tonight, ComRes in the Indy and YouGov in the Sun (tweeted by the Sun Politics team here).

The YouGov/Sun figures show another small Labour lead, CON 36%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 10%. This comes after the Labour lead shrinking to one point in YouGov's weekend poll for the Sunday Times.

The ComRes/Indy poll on the other hand has figures of CON 31%(+1), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 11%(nc). Compared to last month's poll it does actually show Labour's lead falling by three points, but that may just be because last month's lead was a bit larger than usual. The average lead in ComRes telephone polls over the last nine months is five points - just like today's.

So where does that leave us? Well, the reality is that because polls have a margin of error the messages will usually be a bit contradictory, that's why it's best to wait a bit and look at the averages. The Populus, Survation and YouGov polls do suggest a reduced lead, ComRes doesn't. Even if there is one, it doesn't mean it will last. Time will tell.

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