New TNS-BMRB and YouGov polls

The weekly TNS-BMRB poll is out, and has topline figures of CON 31%(nc), LAB 39%(-2), LD 11%(+2), UKIP 7%(-2). Changes are from their last poll a week ago.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun this morning had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%.

All appears to be pretty steady, as it has been for months. Coming up this week though we have the European budget meeting - last year Cameron's European "veto" temporarily closed the Labour lead in the polls (I suspect largely becuase of the impact of perceptions of Cameron as a strong and effective leader, rather than the particular issues at stake). The media are building this week's meeting up to a similar test of Cameron, so it will be interesting to see if there is an impact in the polls from it - clearly it can go either way, strong or weak, positive or negative... or indeed, no difference whatsoever, the impact that most things end up having on voting intention! We shall see.

Today there is also a new tranche of polling from Lord Ashcroft, which I hope to have time to look at later but which can meanwhile be viewed here.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management