New Scottish voting intention from MORI

Ipsos MORI have put up the tables for their poll in the Sunday Times at the weekend and it turns out we have some voting intention figures.

Voting intention in Westminster, with changes from MORI's last Scottish voting intention poll in August, are CON 15%(-3), LAB 32%(+5), LDEM 12%(-2), SNP 34%(+1). For the Holyrood constituency vote the figures are CON 12%(-3), LAB 32%(+7), LDEM 12%(-3), SNP 36%(-2). There doesn't seem to have been a question on Holyrood regional vote.

Interesting the big jump in Labour support that we saw in YouGov and TNS's recent polls has been repeated here, but unlike those polls the SNP is still doing well here as well, and continues to lead Labour in Westminster voting intentions. Whereas the recent YouGov poll showed the SNP gaining only one Westminster seat, if these figures were repeated at a general election then on a uniform swing the SNP would end up with 13 seats.

UPDATE: A coveted gold star award for atrocious media reporting of polls for the Sun, who have managed to present the poll as showing Labour ahead by delving into the tables and taking the figures before MORI had applied their turnout filter, thus grossly overestimating Labour.

In MORI's own words, included in the topline figures for all their voting intention polls "We regard the voting intentions of those “absolutely certain to vote” as the most useful trend indicator, since it includes only those voters whose frame of mind is nearest to those who actually vote at elections".

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