New rmg:Clarity Welsh poll

There is a new Welsh poll out by rmg:clarity - full details here. We have voting intention figures, but they don't appear to have asked seperately for constituency and regional (in fact the survey appears to have asked "At the forthcoming election, do you intend to vote Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru or some other party?" so didn't even specify Welsh assembly election, though one hopes most respondents would have known.

Topline figures are CON 20%, LAB 51%, LDEM 8%, PC 17% - without seperate constituency and regional figures we can't really do a prediction, but clearly with over 50% Labour would likely get an overall majority.

In terms of methodology, this was a mixed-mode phone/internet poll, but well over 95% of the fieldwork was telephone. It is weighted accorded to likelihood to vote, with people less than 5/10 likely to vote excluded. It was weighted by normal demographics - there was no political weighting, but it was weighted by constituency. Looking at the demographics, something very odd appears to be going on with age - of a sample of 1,040 there are only 42 respondents under 35, and the tables imply they were only weighted up to 80 people, which seems a very low target. That said rmg:clarity did perfectly well in the recent Welsh referendum, getting exactly the same figures as YouGov and ICM.