New ICM poll
After all my ponderings about whether we would see Labour fall to third place behind the Liberal Democrats in the next ICM poll, their actual poll shows nothing of the sort. The full topline figures are CON 39%(-1), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 20%(+1). Others are at 14%, somewhat lower than in other recent polls - this divides between 4% for UKIP, 4% for the BNP and 2% for the Greens.
So a contrast to the other polls over the weekend. The trend at least is similar, both Labour and the Conservatives down, the lead substantially the same, minor parties up. The degree, however, is much less - and consequently we have Labour up in the high twenties rather than the calamitous figures we've seen from some other pollsters. I expect some of the reason may be ICM's re-allocation of don't knows, which in practice tends to help a party down on it's luck. We won't know for sure till the tables are out.
Other questions show a similar picture to YouGov, ComRes and BPIX's findings. Most people (69%) think Gordon Brown has handled the crisis badly, while David Cameron has done well (55% agree).
