New ICM poll of marginals

There is a new ICM poll of marginals in tomorrow's News of the World. The poll covered 96 Labour held seats where the Conservatives need a swing of between 4% and 10% to win (so like MORI's marginal polling, it straddles the 7% or so swing the Conservatives would need to win an overall majority - the Conservatives would need to take about half of these to win, if they won them all they would have a majority of about 100).

These are the same seats that ICM polled back in January (report here). The topline figures now, with changes since January, are CON 36%(-4), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 19%(+5). This equates to a swing of 6.3%, so slightly less than the 6.9% the Conservatives require in marginal seats.

The most recent ICM poll showed a national swing of only 3.5%, so theoretically this poll shows the swing in the marginals is quite considerably more than nationwide - however, the previous ICM poll did seem rather out of place, showing only a 4 point lead in a poll conducted over the weekend. I suspect the national lead is actually greater than that, and therefore the Conservative outperformance in marginals seats is less than this poll would imply.

UPDATE: The next in tonight's cavaclade of polling should be ComRes in the Independent on Sunday, should be out quite soon.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management