New ComRes poll - 36/30/23
There is a new new ComRes poll in tomorrow's Independent on Sunday, topline voting intention figures stand at CON 36%(-1), LAB 30%(-3), LDEM 23%(+2). Changes are from ComRes's last voting intention poll at the start of the month, and show a slight widening of the Conservative lead but nothing significant once one takes into account the margin of error. Note the contrast in Lib Dem support between this and the Harris's poll in the Metro a week and a half ago, which both show very little change from the general election, and the drop we've seen in Lib Dem support from YouGov and to a lesser extent ICM. That will be something to look at in more detail if it persists and once the pollsters post-election methodologies have settled down (presently ComRes seem to be weighted recalled vote to the actual shares of the vote from 2010, which I expect will not be their long term position).
On other questions, ComRes asked if people agreed that child benefit and/or pensioners winter fuel allowance should be means tested - 53% agreed that child benefit should be "withdrawn from better-off familes", only 39% agreed winter fuel allowance should be "withdrawn from better-off elderly people". It provides an interesting contrast - I can think of possible explanations (for example, people may think that elderly people who are in need are more likely than families to be detered by a means-test) - but of course, the polling questions themselves don't tell us people's reasons.
The other questions, 38% agreed with the statement “The coalition government is deliberately exaggerating the financial problems to justify cuts to the public sector” and 48% agreed with the statement “I would be prepared to pay more income tax rather than see public services cut”.
UPDATE: Hmm. The Indy on Sunday have the Conservatives as being up one point (or at least, they do at the moment) - changes are quoted as being from the ComRes poll on the 2nd June, which is here and definitely has them on 37%. Presumably just a typo.
