New Ashcroft poll of Rochester & Strood

Lord Ashcroft has released a new poll of Rochester and Strood. Topline figures are CON 32%, LAB 17%, LDEM 2%, UKIP 44%, Others 5%. This is a narrower UKIP lead than the ComRes and Survation polls at the end of October, but still enough for a comfortable UKIP win (especially since the poll was conducted at about the time postal votes were going out, so opportunities for people to change their mind are now fading).

Ashcroft also asked about how people would vote in Rochester and Strood come the general election, and found a substantial contrast. The figures aren't exactly comparable since Ashcroft didn't do likelihood to vote at the general election or reallocate don't knows, but it suggests around a one or two point Conservative lead in general election voting intention amongst those giving a voting intention - hence raising the possibility of Mark Reckless winning his by-election, but losing his seat next May. Full tabs are here.

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