New Angus Reid poll
Political Betting have a new poll by Angus Reid. The topline figures, with changes from their last poll, are CON 40%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 20%(+1). Others are at 15%, down 3.
Overall there is no significant change from their previous poll. The Conservative lead is,
needless to say, much greater than in most other recent polls, as the level of Labour support is lower. This is not a sign of some sudden Conservative recovery - Angus Reid have been showing the Tory lead up at this level all along - it's just to do with different methodology.
Specifically Angus Reid assume no false recall when weighting their samples to recalled 2005 vote, which means their samples have fewer people who claim to have voted Labour in 2005 than phone pollsters do. For some reason they also tend to show a higher level of support for others - I've no clear explanation for that, it could be their question (they ask who people would "support", not how they would vote) or it could be something entirely different.
Still to come this year we should have a YouGov poll for the Telegraph, which normally comes out the last Friday of the month (though it's probably safe to assume it will be a different day this year!), a ComRes poll for the Indy, and Ipsos MORI's monthly monitor, which was apparently conducted last weekend but has yet to be released into the wild. I expect, as was the case last month, that one of the Sunday papers is going to print it.
