Ipsos MORI show smallest Tory lead since 2008
There is a new(ish) Ipsos MORI poll in the Observer. The topline figures, with changes from MORI's previous poll in mid-October, are CON 37%(-6), LAB 31%(+5), LDEM 17%(-2).
The poll was actually conducted last weekend at the same time as ICM's Guardian poll, prior to the Queen's speech, David Curry's expenses accusations and the recent floods (before anyone suggests any of them might have contributed to it!). In ICM's case the lead shrunk, but the Tory vote actually stayed the same, and the effect was to bring ICM in line with the sort of figures all the other pollsters were showing. This poll is clearly very different - it shows a 6 point collapse in Conservative support and represents by far the lowest Conservative lead for almost a year.
As ever, I would urge extreme caution on any poll showing a large shift in voting intention, especially where there is no obvious reason for a large, short term movement. Until we get the tables we can't dig around to see exactly what is behind the movement, and until we find another poll supporting this shift, I wouldn't get too excited/paniced (depending on your point of view!)
