MORI put Boris ahead in mayoral race

Conservative Home is reporting that the MORI poll we'd been expecting in tomorrow is, in fact, a London mayoral poll. It apparently shows voting intention with second preferences reallocated as Johnson 51%, Livingstone 49%. It's the first MORI poll putting Boris ahead, although given that their recent poll for Unison was actually only a fraction of a percentage point away from being 50%-50%, the change from their last poll is actually entirely insignificant.

UPDATE: The full figures are now up on MORI's website here. First round voting intentions stand at JOHNSON 46%, LIVINGSTONE 40%, PADDICK 11%. With Boris leading by 6 points on the first round, but only 2 points on the second round, second preferences of Brian Paddick and the minor party candidates must have broken largely in favour of Ken Livingstone.

Note that MORI prefaced the question with the wording, "In the next election for Mayor of London, the present Mayor, Ken Livingstone is standing for re-election as the Labour Party candidate. Boris Johnson is standing for the Conservatives, and Brian Paddick is standing for the Liberal Democrats, and there will be other candidates too." In their last poll Sian Berry was also included in the prompt and recieved 5% of first preferences. In this poll, with no prompt for Sian Berry, she recieved only 2% support.

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