Latest YouGov Welsh polling

YouGov's monthly Welsh poll for ITV Wales is now out. Topline figures with changes from the last poll (which was actually done at the start of this month, so it was just after the Welsh referendum) are as follows:

Constituency: CON 21%(+1), LAB 47%(-1), LDEM 8%(+1), PC 17%(-2) Regional: CON 20%(nc), LAB 45%(nc), LDEM 8%(+3), PC 16%(-2), UKIP 6%(+1)

By my reckoning, on a uniform swing this would work out 13 seats for the Conservatives (up 1), 33 seats for Labour (up 7), 5 seats for the Liberal Democrats (down 1) and 9 seats for Plaid (down 6) - thus giving Labour an overall majority.

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Local Elections Expectations Management