Latest YouGov Welsh Assembly figures
YouGov have released their final Welsh poll of the year for ITV Wales (the final daily poll of the year for the Sun, incidentally, comes tonight). Welsh assembly voting intention figures with changes from last month are:
Constituency: CON 23%(+2), LAB 44%(nc), LDEM 6%(-3), Plaid 21%(nc) Regional: CON 22%(+2), LAB 42%(+1), LDEM 5%(-4), Plaid 21%(+1)
On a uniform swing (and making the fairly safe assumption that Labour will reclaim Blaenau Gwent) this would give Labour 30 seats in the Welsh Assembly, the Conservatives 15, Plaid 13 and the Liberal Democrats 2. The Lib Dems, incidentally, would no longer pick up any top-up seats, once you get down to 5% or so support the maths just doesn't stack up. Amongst the others, UKIP were equal to the Lib Dems on 5% in the regional vote, but they wouldn't get any seats either (on these figures they'd be closest to getting one in South Wales East).
