Latest Welsh Assembly polling
ITV Wales have published their monthly YouGov poll of voting intentions for the Welsh Assembly elections next year. The topline figures, with changes from last month, are:
Constitutency: CON 21%(+2), LAB 44%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), PC 21%(nc) Regional: CON 20%(+2), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 9%(nc), PC 20%(-3)
On a uniform swing (and assuming Labour take Blaenau Gwent), these would give Labour 30 seats, 1 short of an overall majority of 31. Incidentally, in the comments last month someone raised the possibility of UKIP sneaking a seat at the regional level. On the current levels of support they wouldn't, obviously it all depends on the exact configuration of seats and support, but as things stand it would take roughly 7% or so support for them to get a regional seat. In this latest poll they are at 4%, down from 6% a month ago.
