Latest Populus, Ashcroft and ICM polls

So far today we have three new opinion polls, all conducted since the Clacton by-election result. Yesterday's Survation poll was conducted just on Friday, in the immediate glare of the post by-election publicity, and saw UKIP spikng up to 25%, three points above Survation's record high for the party. Today's polls were conducted over the weekend and seem to show a more mixed picture.

Populus - CON 35%(+1), LAB 36%(+1), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 13%(nc), GRN 3%(-1) (tabs) Ashcroft - CON 28%(-4), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 19%(+2), GRN 5%(-2) (tabs) ICM - CON 31%(-2), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 11%(+1), UKIP 14%(+5), GRN 4% (tabs)

Populus have UKIP unchanged at 13%, and have recently had UKIP as high as 15% so this certainly doesn't reflect any sort of new high. Ashcroft has UKIP up two points since last week, equalling their record high from an Ashcroft poll, but not breaking new ground. ICM have the most impressive showing for UKIP, up five points on last month's poll - a significant boost compared to the 9%-10% UKIP have been registering in recent ICM polls, but below ICM's previous highs for UKIP. We still have the daily YouGov/Sun poll to come, but so far the overall picture from today's polls is looking like a respectable UKIP boost on the back of their by-election success, rather than a huge breakthrough.

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