Latest Populus and YouGov polls
This morning's Populus poll has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 14%, GRN 4% (tabs here). Meanwhile this morning's YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18%, GRN 7% (tabs here).
Earlier in the week we also had a fresh lot of Ashcroft marginals polls that I didn't get chance to look at - details are here. This batch were back to Con-Lab marginals, in this case those seats with majorities between 3.1% and 4.8%, so needing a swing between 1.6% and 2.5%. These are still seats that on current national polling should fall to Labour, though given there is variation between the swing in different seats they are not such easy pickings as the ultra-marginals in Ashcroft's previous polls (in one of the seats polled - Pudsey - Ashcroft found Labour and the Conservatives equal).
The average swing across the eleven seats polled was 5%, the equivalent of a 3% Labour lead in national polls. The average position in the national polls when this fieldwork was being done (10th September - 3rd October) was a 3.6% Labour lead, so once again the difference between the swing in the marginal seats and the swing in the national polls is tiny.
