Latest Populus and Ashcroft polls

It's Monday, so we have the weekly Ashcroft poll and the first of Populus's two weekly polls

Populus's topline figures are CON 33%(-2), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 12%(+3) (tabs here) Ashcroft's topline figures are CON 32%(+5), LAB 34%(-1), LDEM 9%(+2), UKIP 14%(-3) (tabs here)

Populus shows slight movement away from the Conservatives, Ashcroft a movement towards the Conservatives... but one that is probably just a reversion to the mean after an unusually low score last week. I suspect all we are seeing here is normal sample variation around an average Labour lead of 3 or 4 points.

We are now heading towards the silly season, so big, unexpected events aside, don't expect much in the way of poll shifts in the month ahead. It's an election year so it may not be as quiet as usual - the parties will be trying to make the most of that empty news agenda with announcements... but equally, I doubt they'll want to waste any major announcements in the Summer. Unless any events come along to change things Westminster politics will have a bit of a quite period until conference season - punctuated, of course, by the extremely major event of the Scottish referendum in seven weeks time....

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