Latest Polling Leaves Labour Well Placed for Rutherglen By-Election

Keir Starmer was up in Scotland ahead of the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, and based on the most recent polling he has good reason to be confident of his chances. YouGov have just released a Scotland-specific poll giving Labour their highest Westminster vote share since the independence referendum - they're on 32%, just 4 points behind the SNP on 36%, in what is their worst result since 2018. The Conservatives are on 15% and the Lib Dems on 6%. The SNPs lead over Labour has closed by 5 points since April.

To add to the Labour Party's Scottish prospects, this isn't even the best of their recent polls. Survation have put the SNPs lead over Labour at 3%, while Panelbase even had the two parties level. Even taking just the most recent YouGov result, which is somewhat less favourable to Labour, they would likely win the upcoming by-election. Applying the result compared to 2019 on a proportional basis would give a Labour majority around 22%, whilst a Uniform swing would produce a Labour majority in the region of 12%.

There are further mitigating factors which also bode well for Labour. Recent by-elections, barring Uxbridge and South Ruislip, have seen swings in excess of the national average, whilst the unique circumstances in Rutherglen and Hamilton West - and in particular the context of Margaret Ferrier's recall - would only harm the SNP's prospects. However, there is the important caveat that this election is being contested against the SNP, rather than the Conservatives, which could mitigate the effect of an anti-Tory swing. The present unpopularity of the Conservative Westminster government could also influence results in favour of the SNP.

There is yet more reason to be cautious of any Rutherglen predictions - namely we don't even know when it will be. In recent months, the SNP have recovered some ground in polling and if it was yet more months away they could strengthen their position. That being said, the magnitude of Labour's Scottish resurgence certainly bodes well for their prospects. Anas Sarwar's relative popularity also can't hurt...