Latest MORI and ICM referendum polling

There are two new polls on the EU referendum today. While the YouGov and ComRes polls conducted after the draft renegotiation showed a sharp movement towards LEAVE, these two paint a far steadier picture (though given one is online and one was conducted by phone, their overall figures contrast with each other!). ICM's last poll had shown LEAVE nudging ahead, today's new online figures are back to REMAIN 43%, LEAVE 39% (tabs here). Ipsos MORI's latest telephone figures are REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 36% - virtually unchanged from their previous poll (tabs here).

MORI also released their monthly voting intention figures, which stand at CON 39%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 12%, GRN 3%

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

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What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management