Latest ICM and Populus polls

The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 32%(nc), LAB 36%(+1), LDEM 14%(nc), UKIP 9%(-1), no significant change from last month. Like MORI, NOP and YouGov in recent months, ICM also found an increase in economic confidence - 50% now feel quite or very confident about their economic prospects compared to 49% who are not very or not at all confident.

Meanwhile Populus's twice weekly poll has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 9%. Full tabs are here.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

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What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management