Latest Ashcroft, Populus, ComRes and YouGov polls

We've had a busy day of voting intention polls today, four polls from Populus, Ashcroft, YouGov and ComRes, and three of them showing the same lead. Topline figures are:

Ashcroft: CON 31%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 5% (tabs) Populus: CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 3% (tabs) YouGov/Sun: CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 18% ComRes/Indy: CON 30%(+1), LAB 30%(-5), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 19%(+4), GRN 4%(nc) (tabs)

Leaving aside the tendency of Populus to show higher support for the Conservatives and Labour and lower support for others, the picture is pretty consistent. Three polls (as well as YouGov and Opinion polls at the weekend) are showing the same story - Labour and Conservative equal, and UKIP still polling very strongly. Whether there is any link there is a different matter - perhaps UKIP's ongoing rise has attracted people who were previously saying they'd vote Labour (though not necessarily people who voted Labour in 2010) who see UKIP as a better anti-government vote, but there is always churn beneath the topline figures and things may very well be more complicated than a straight transfer between the two.

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