Labour's private polling update!

Just to illustrate a post I made a fortnight or so ago. At the time Jackie Ashley was assuring us that Labour's private polling "suggests that Labour could return to the Commons with just 120 MPs or thereabouts, taking the party back to 1930s territory." To reduce Labour to 120 seats the Conservative would have needed a lead of about 28 points.

Today though, James Macintyre assures us that Labour's private polling shows they are now ahead.

So... Labour have made up a deficit of around 28 points? In a fortnight? Either Labour's private polling figures are so comically volatile as to be worthless, or one or both of you have been sold a pup, haven't you?

Once again, please ignore any journalist claiming to have seen parties' private polling showing X, unless they quote actual figures. If they do quote actual figures, go and contact the pollster responsible and request the release of the tables under the BPC disclosure rules so you can see for yourself what they actually say.

UPDATE: James now says Labour's private polling doesn't show them ahead. It shows a trend that he or his source interpret as showing that Labour will be in front by next year. Since there's still no actual figures or tables for you to draw your own conclusions from, you should still ignore it.

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