Labour and SNP neck-and-neck in Glenrothes
The ICM poll we expected last night turns out to be a Glenrothes constituency poll for the Mail on Sunday. The poll shows Labour and the SNP neck and neck on 43% support, and asked how they would vote if the by-election was seen as decisive to Brown's continued leadership, the poll suggests a further swing to the SNP.
The last constituency polls for Glasgow East actually put Labour a long way ahead, when in the event the SNP won. If this poll is overstating Labour in the same way we can expect a comfortable SNP win, though that won't necessarily be the case - Glenrothes doesn't have the same extremes of social deprivation that probably made Glasgow East hard to poll.
