Ken still ahead with Ipsos MORI
A new Ipsos MORI poll for the London elections, commissioned by Unison, shows Ken Livingstone narrowly in the lead. The first preference votes, with changes from MORI's last poll of the mayoral election back in February, are JOHNSON 40%(+2), LIVINGSTONE 41%(-1), PADDICK 14%(-2). Once second preferences are reallocated Ken is ahead by 51% to 49%, suggesting the second preferences split very slightly in favour of Livingstone. The poll was conducted between April 1st and April 7th, so prior to the Newsnight debate yesterday.
These figures are very close to those from ICM last week, although since they've arrived at them in very different ways that's largely co-incidence: MORI use a much tighter filter on likelihood to vote than ICM; taking those 10/10 likely to vote MORI show a 1 point Livingstone lead, ICM on the same basis would have shown an 8 point Johnson lead.
As with the ICM poll that showed the leading candidates neck-and-neck, MORI found that Livingstone had a lead amongst young people. While all the polls show Johnson ahead amongst older voters, and Livingstone tending to do better amongst middle aged voters, opinions of younger people seems to be a big contrast between the ICM and MORI polls that show the candidates close together and the YouGov polls that show Johnson with a clear lead, where Johnson tends also to do well amongst young people.
If the big contrast between pollsters remains right up the election, it looks as though someone is going to end up looking embarrassed.
UPDATE: Mike Smithson points out that the apparent 2 point lead for Livingstone on the second vote is largely in the rounding - Johnson's second round vote is around about 49.5% and Livingstone's is around about 50.5%. If the figures had been very slightly different we'd have been discussing a poll showing them even on 50% in the second round.
