Irish referendum on Lisbon
A reader emailed me to ask if we could have a look at the polling in Ireland ahead of the second referendum on the Lisbon treaty. A reader emailed me to ask if we could have a look at the polling in Ireland ahead of the second referendum on the Lisbon treaty. We certainly can - here's the latest polls:
| Yes | No | Don't know | ||
| Quantum | 12/09/09 | 63 | 15 | 22 |
| Red C | 12/09/09 | 62 | 23 | 15 |
| TNS Mrbi | 04/09/09 | 46 | 29 | 22 |
| TNS Mrbi | 28/05/09 | 54 | 28 | 18 |
| TNS Mrbi | 13/05/09 | 52 | 29 | 19 |
| Quantum | 25/04/09 | 54 | 24 | 22 |
| Red C | 28/01/09 | 58 | 28 | 14 |
On the face of it the Yes camp would seem to have an unassailable lead. However, I wouldn't necessary put money on it. In the first referendum on Lisbon polls in the months leading up to the referendum consistently showed the YES camp ahead, when as we know, the NO campaign ended up victorious. Only one pollster - TNS MRBI - showed the NO camp ahead, and then only in their final poll having previously recorded leads for YES. This year TNS MRBI's most recent poll, after a long gap since back in May, shows support for the YES camp dipping back below 50%. I wouldn't dimiss this as being cut and dried just yet.
