Ipsos MORI show 17 point Tory lead

ICM's latest poll is apparently due out tonight, but in the meantime Ipsos MORI have released their monthly tracker, and there's no sign of any Labour recovery here. The topline figures, with changes from their last poll, are CON 43%(+7), LAB 26%(+2), LDEM 19%(-6).

Their previous poll was carried out just after the Liberal Democrat conference, and got a lot of attention since it showed Labour in third place. Not surprisingly this one shows the Lib Dem conference boost unwinding, but unlike the YouGov and ComRes polls at the weekend there is no narrowing of the Conservative lead - in fact, the 17 point Tory lead is exactly the same as the last pre-conference MORI poll.

Full tables are here.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management