ICM/Guardian - CON 34, LAB 39, LD 14

ICM's monthly poll for the Guardian has now been published. Topline voting intention figures with changes from last month are CON 34%(-2), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 14%(+3), Others 13%(nc).

The three point boost for the Liberal Democrats is almost certainly a reversion to the mean, ICM typically show a significantly higher level of Lib Dem support than other companies and the 11 point score they had them on last month was conspiculously low for ICM (even though it would be unusually high for some other companies!).

In the Guardian's write up they note the scale of difference that ICM's reallocation of don't knows is now making. Without it Labour's lead would have been 10 points in this poll, the reallocation of former Tory voters saying don't know brings it down to just 5.