ICM/Guardian - CON 34, LAB 38, LD 10, UKIP 11

The monthly ICM/Guardian poll is out tonight here. Topline voting intentions are CON 34%(+2), LAB 38%(+3), LDEM 10%(-4), UKIP 11%(+1).

In recent years ICM have tended to show the highest level of support for the Liberal Democrats because of their reallocation of don't knows (lots of people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 now tell pollsters they don't know how they would vote - ICM assume 50% of them will end up going back to the Lib Dems). Hence while we've become used to seeing the Liberal Democrats in fourth place behind UKIP, this is only the second time the ICM Guardian poll has shown it.

The poll asked about European election voting intentions, finding topline figures of CON 25%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 20%, Grn 7%. Unlike the YouGov and Survation polls last month they still have the Tories clinging on to second place, but UKIP are still polling above their 2009 level of support. All the European election polls so far are collected here.

Today also had the first of this week's two Populus polls. Topline figures there were CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%. Tabs here.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management