ICM/Guardian - CON 33, LAB 31, LD 13, UKIP 15

Following the surprise Ashcroft poll earlier on today ICM's monthly poll for the Guardian is also showing a lead for the Conservative party. Their topline figures are CON 33%(+1), LAB 31%(-6!), LDEM 13%(+1), UKIP 15%(+4).

ICM had the two parties neck and neck briefly in 2013, but this is the first time they've shown the Conservatives ahead since the Omnishambles budget in 2012. I'll advise my usual caution on polls showing interesting movements, but the poll does give some backup to the Ashcroft poll earlier today.

The poll also asked about voting intention in the European elections and found topline figures of CON 27%, LAB 24%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 26%, GRN 10%. Lab, Con and UKIP are all within the margin of error of each other, but if it panned out like that the Conservatives would presumably be delighted given most polls are showing them languishing in third place (including another from Opinium today, which had figures of CON 23%, LAB 27%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 28%)

The other poll out today, Populus's regular online poll had topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%. Unlike the other two polls they have Labour still in the lead - but only just. Still to come tonight we will have the regular YouGov poll for the Sun.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management