ICM/Guardian - CON 32, LAB 38, LD 15, UKIP 9

The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out tonight. Topline voting intentions stand at CON 32%(+1), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 15%(nc), UKIP 9%(+2).

The Labour lead of only six points is significantly lower than other polls are showing (indeed, it's the lowest we've seen since February), but this is due to methodological reasons not some sudden Tory recovery. ICM typically show lower Labour leads and higher levels of Lib Dem support than other companies because of the way they reallocate people who say don't know to the party they say they voted for last time and weight down the answers of people who didn't vote last time. The figures are, therefore, pretty much in line with what we'd expect, with the changes from last month's ICM poll all within the normal margin of error.