ICM/Guardian - CON 30, LAB 38, LD 13, UKIP 10
The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out tonight. Topline figures are CON 30%(-4), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 13%(+1), UKIP 10%(+2). The eight point Labour lead is the largest ICM have shown since March - for the last three months they've been showing more modest Labour leads of three or four points.
There were also some questions asked about leadership. On leadership attributes David Cameron scores better than Miliband on doing best in a crisis, Ed Miliband scores better on "understands people like me". This is in line with the usual pattern questions like this paint - David Cameron always tends to score better on things like strength, crisis-management and being Prime Ministerial, Ed Miliband always tends to score better on things like being in touch, caring, and understanding ordinary people.
The last time ICM asked the same questions in December 2012 they only asked three of the same questions, so we don't have a great comparison. For the record there's a drop in Cameron's ratings, down on understanding, being good in a crisis, though marginally up on being backed by his party. Miliband's ratings on being good in a crisis, understanding people like me and being backed by his party have all fallen.
In passing, I've already seen some people on twitter remarking on the massive gender gap - the Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck amongst men, but Labour are nineteen points ahead amongst women. Remarkable? No. Remember Twyman's law - if something looks interesting or unusual, it's probably wrong. The cross breaks in ICM polls for men and women's voting intention are normally around about 200 to 250 people, so a margin of error of 6 or 7 points. The occassionally wierd and eye-catching result in the crossbreaks is inevitable... and meaningless. Last month's ICM poll, for example, had identical leads for men and women.
Meanwhile the twice-weekly Populus poll also had an eight point lead for Labour: CON 31%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 10%. For what it's worth, male and female respondents both showed an eight point lead for Labour! Tabs here.
