ICM show Tory lead down just 4

So, with Gordon Brown expected to call the election tomorrow, tonight's should be the last polls before the formal campaign kicks off. It's unfortunate timing, given that bank holiday weekends (particularly long bank holiday weekends) have something of a reputation for producing strange samples. I'm not sure the reputation is actually justified, but there is at least one good example (the bank holiday weekend before the 2005 election, when a strange sample left Populus showing a 14 point Labour lead).

Anyway, the first two polls of the evening are ICM and Opinium. ICM in the Guardian have topline figures of CON 37%(-1), LAB 33%(+4), LDEM 21%(-2) - so a sharp narrowing of the Tory lead, down to the lowest they've been from ICM since February 2008.

In contrast, Opinium's figures in the Express have topline figures with changes from a week ago of CON 39%(+1), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 17%(-1). YouGov still to come (and possibly another, depending on whether that Opinium was the third one I'd heard rumor of or not).

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