ICM show 9 point Tory lead
The Sunday Telegraph tomorrow has a new ICM poll with topline figures of CON 39% (-1), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 20%(-1). None of the changes since the last poll are significant in themselves itself - a one point change in support means nothing. However, this poll chimes very much with the trend we've seen on other recent polls.
ICM's previous poll was conducted just before the announcement of the formal end of the recession, and with the exception of Angus Reid all the polls since then have shown a narrowing of the Conservative lead. ComRes, YouGov, BPIX and now ICM have shown the Tories dropping below 40% and aside from Angus Reid all the polls since the end of the recession have shown Labour back at 30% or above. I think there can now be little doubt that the lead has narrowed slightly in the last fortnight.
While we can't tell for sure, the timing points to this being the result of the end of the recession, especially since MORI and YouGov have shown parallel increases in economic optimism and, in YouGov's case, a sharp increase in the proportion of people who think that the government's policies to end the recession have started to work. The other explanation is that the Conservative campaign has been seen as making several mistakes over the last few weeks - ironically, it's probably better for the Conservatives if that is the cause, since they could then put things right. If the reason is the return of the feel good factor then the Conservatives are at the mercy of the recovering economy.
UPDATE: The fieldwork dates are the 3rd-4th of February so, in response to those who have asked, the fieldwork would have been done before the news broke that 3 Labour MPs and one Tory peer were to face criminal charges over the expenses scandal.
