ICM show 19 point Tory lead

There is apparently a new ICM poll in the News of the World tomorrow. The topline figures with changes from their previous poll are CON 45%(+5), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 18%(-5).

ICM's last poll was conducted towards the end of the Lib Dem conference, so the changes in this poll likely reflect the unwinding of the Liberal Democrat conference boost, and the heights of the Conservatives' one. Compared to ICM's pre-conference polling the Conservative are up 2, and the Lib Dems down one, but as I said with the polls this morning, it's too early to draw any conclusions about overall effects from the conference season since the Conservatives may still be benefitting from a publicity boost.

As far as I'm aware this is the second highest lead that ICM have ever given the Conservative party (their highest ever was 20 points in June 2008).

UPDATE: Fieldwork for the poll was on the 7th and 8th October, so at least half of it would have been prior to David Cameron's conference speech. The rest of the poll included a set of "best party on issues" questions. The Conservatives led on all but one - their biggest lead was law and order, where they led Labour by 21 points, followed by reducing debt (19 points ahead), Afghanistan (16 points) and the economy (15 points). Their lowest leads were Europe (6 points), the environment (5 points) and the NHS, where Labour had a narrow one point lead.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management