ICM poll shows Tories set to gain Crewe and Nantwich
The News of the World carries a second ICM poll on the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. Voting intention figures, with changes from the ICM/Mail on Sunday poll in Crewe and Nantwich last week, are CON 45%(+2), LAB 37%(-2), LDEM 14%(-2).
Last week there was a very large proportion of former Labour voters saying don't know, so it will be interesting when the tables are released to see if the changes are a result of a drop in "Labour don't knows". The bottom line is, however, that with less than a week to go till polling day it looks almost certain that the Conservatives will finally break their 26 year failure to gain a seat at a by-election. By-election polling is tricky and polls can be wrong... but when they are it is hardly ever in favour of the Conservatives, and 8% is a decent lead.
Only 4% of people in Crewe and Nantwich said the increase in tax allowances had made them more likely to vote Labour in the by-election, with 24% saying it had made them less likely to vote Labour.
