ICM give NO campaign a solid lead

The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian shows a solid lead for the NO campaign in the AV referendum. Excluding don't knows and won't says, and weighted by likelihood to vote, the topline figures are YES 42%(-7), NO 58%(+7). Changes are from February.

Without turnout weighting and repercentaging the figures are YES 33%, NO 44%, Don't know 23%.

This is the biggest lead we've so far seen for the no campaign in a question asking the bare referendum question, but is very much in line with the "No-wards" trend we've seen from other pollsters. The only company still showing YES ahead in recent polling is Angus Reid.

Note that unlike other recent AV polling ICM did include Northern Ireland respondents in their sample (that said, Northern Ireland voters are a very small proportion of the total UK electorate, so it would only make a difference in a very tight race. To give you an idea of scale, in ICM's sample of 1033 people only 30 were from Northern Ireland)

Meanwhile ICM's voting intention figures stand at CON 35%(-2), LAB 37%(+1), LDEM 15%(-1), others 13%. Changes are from last month (which, you may recall, was conducted during the government's very brief "budget bounce" and showed a tiny Conservative lead.