ICM and Opinium show Conservatives recovering

There are three new polls out tonight, so far we have ICM and Opinium with YouGov to follow later. Opinium for the Express have topline figures, with changes from a week ago, of CON 39%(+2), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 16%(nc). Others are presumably still at or around 17%, continuing the very high level of support for "others" that seems to be common amongst the newer online companies, and which seems to also correspond to a lower level of support for Labour.

The second poll for ICM has topline figures with changes from their poll in the Sunday Telegraph of CON 40%(+2), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 20%(-1). ICM have others at 9%, so just over half what Opinium have.

Neither polls have massive changes, but both show shift back towards the Conservatives after the recent narrowing. Both were conducted over the weekend, so most of the fieldwork would have been conducted prior to both Nick Clegg's speech and the Samantha Cameron interview.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management