Scotland

Humza Yousaf Polarises Opinion as He Remains Favourite of SNP Voters

Taking a closer look at new Scottish polling from YouGov can elucidate the nature of support in the SNP Leadership contest. Although Kate Forbes remains the favourite of voters overall, at least when compared to the other candidates, Humza Yousaf is the preferred option of SNP members. This divergence is explained by looking at the polarisation of other voters.

Where Kate Forbes receives near uniform levels of support across SNP, Conservative and Overall voters, Yousaf is a more polarising figure. Conservative voters overwhelmingly hold negative estimations of his capacity to govern well - 81% say he would make a bad first minister compared to just 5% who disagree. This likely drives his lower approvals amongst Scots generally. Meanwhile, unlike both Forbes and Regan he is actually held in positive esteem amongst SNP members - albeit still with significant opposition.

The fact neither candidate has solid support - even amongst just SNP voters - should worry the party. Irrespective of the outcome, the next First Minister will have a difficult job of governing the party. Especially if this is Forbes or Regan.

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