First post-PBR poll shows a 4 point Tory lead

The first poll since the PBR is in the Telegraph tomorrow. The YouGov poll has topline voting intentions of CON 40%(-1), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 14%(nc).

The poll was conducted Monday evening and today, so was entirely after the PBR, though as I said in my earlier post, it may be too soon for the full effect to be apparent: most respondents will have filled in the survey before seeing the newspaper coverage of the polls this morning. So far there doesn't appear to have been any significant effect from the PBR: there is no significant change in levels of support, though in the one minor change there is the trend is continuing to run against the Conservatives.

The full figures are not yet on the Telegraph or YouGov websites, but there are some figures mentioned in their report: the Conservatives have maintained their lead on the economy, but Labour continue to be seen as best to handle the current crisis. Looking at the specific measures contained in the pre-budget report, the main ones meet with widespread support...60% supported the cut in VAT, 72% supported the new 45% tax band. However, according to Anthony King's analysis a large majority of people think none of them will do much to actually help the recession.

Moving to the Conservatives - two-thirds agreed that the Conservatives were right to warn people that tax cuts now would inevitably lead to big tax increases in the future, and about half of respondents said it was wrong for the government to borrow so much as the economy would suffer in the longer term. However, their problem is still that people don't think they are offering much of an alternative. Two thirds think the Tories are spending too much time blaming the government and not enough saying what they would do.