Final polls of 2014
We now have the final YouGov and Populus polls of the year (possibly the last two polls of the year, unless something unexpected turns up). Topline figures are
Populus: CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4% (tabs) YouGov/Sun: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5% (tabs)
The YouGov four point Labour lead is interesting, coming as it does after that odd looking five point lead last week - normally I'd write something along the lines of keeping an eye on the next few polls to see if YouGov are picking up some movement towards Labour...but of course, the next few polls aren't until January. In contrast Populus aren't showing any such move, with Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck.
Before signing off for the year, I also wanted to flag up some new British Election Study analysis from Phil Cowley here, looking at where people put the parties on the left-right spectrum in Scotland, something I don't recall ever having seen before. Essentially it finds people put the two main parties in Scotland in the same place ideologically, on a 0-10 left right scale they rate Labour at 4.1, the SNP at 3.9. Of course, averages don't tell the whole story as different people see the parties differently - looking at Labour's Scottish voters, they rate themselves as 3.4 on the left-right scale, the Labour party as 3.4 and the SNP as off to the right on 4.9. For SNP voters, they rate themselves as 3.6 on the scale, their party as 3.8 and the Labour opposition as off to the right on 5.3. Both parties' supporters see themselves as left-wingers supporting a left-wing party against a more right-wing opposition.
And that's it - I may do an end of year round up... or may just put my feet up. Either way, have a good Christmas.
