Economic Optimism
The big leap in Liberal Democrat support isn't the only surprise in today's MORI poll. As I wrote in the update below, there is also a big jump in economic optimism. I thought it might be a good time to take a wider look at economic optimism.
The graph above shows four regular monthly trackers of economic optimism. GfK NOP and Ipsos MORI both ask people each month if they think the economy will get better or worse over the next 12 months - these are the net figures of those thinking better minus those thinking worse. TNS ask a similar question for the Nationwide, but asking about the next 6 months. YouGov in the Telegraph polls ask about how people think their own household will fare over the next 12 months.
As you can see from the graph, economic optimism reached it's low point back in summer 2008. There was a big jump in economic confidence after the bail out package in the Autumn, but it slumped again as we headed into January 2009 and several high street stores went to the wall. Now it appears to be heading upwards again. No one else has recorded anything like the boost that MORI have, but so far their's is the only April data we have, so we might yet see it reflected elsewhere.
What does this mean politically? Firstly it depends if it is matched by reality, if optimism rises, but then more bad news comes along, it poses an obvious risk to Labour. If signs of economic recovery come along to support the new optimism, then it's harder to say. One possiblity is that increased optimism will be reflected in increased support for the incumbent, but it isn't necessarily that straighforward. There is an argument that with the crisis passed people will be less risk adverse and have more of an appetite for change.
Labour now are still in a better position than they were before the economic crisis really took hold last autumn, in my opinion part of that is Labour are more united now, but part of it is probably also that many people still trust Gordon Brown as the right man to deal with an economic crisis, begging the question of what happens if the economic crisis passes...
UPDATE: For the record, here's the average of those four economic optimism trackers, plotted alongside the average Labour lead in the polls each month.
Still some relationship there, though not a rock solid one. The recovery in economic optimism since the start of the year hasn't yet been reflected in any recovery in Labour's position.
