David Davis miles ahead in H&H poll

There is also a snap Haltemprice and Howden constituency poll conducted by ICM for the Mail on Sunday on Friday. It shows 57% of Mr Davis's constituens support his decision to force a by-election and 69% think it was a principled decision. At this stage, David Davis would annihilate any opposition in a by-election - in a straight fight Kelvin Mackenzie has the support of only 14% to Davis's 67%, in a straight fight with Labour they would have only 11%.

Of course, it's a hugely unusual by-election and whatever opposition to Davis does emerge - assuming that some does - has not even begun to oppose him, so things could change, but the starting point is that Davis is utterly dominant.

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