Daily YouGov poll - 39/32/18

I'm glad I was sceptical about the polls showing any shift back to the Tories in my Angus Reid post earlier, since today's YouGov poll for the Sun has now emerged, and has topline figures of CON 39%(nc), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 18%(nc).

At some point over the next few days I will do a proper post on how we should look at daily polling figures and what we can learn from them. We do need to adjust the way we interpret polls slightly, unless there have been

particular events or news stories, one day movement will more often than not just be normal sample error. It'll be ever more important to look at the wider trend, though of course, we will also have a much greater volume of data upon which to judge it.

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