CrosbyTextor poll of marginal seats

There is a new poll by CrosbyTextor in the Sunday Telegraph, conducted in the top thirty Conservative target seats. I believe the poll was taken in the top thirty Conservative target seats using my notional boundary figures - the list is here. It matches the breakdown as given in the Sunday Telegraph of 20 Labour held seats, 10 Lib Dems and 1 SNP seat.

The share of the vote in these seats at the last election would have been CON 38.1%, LAB 30.8%, LDEM 24.5%, Others 6.6%. Today's poll has party support in those seats at CON 41%, LAB 17%, LDEM 18%. Unless there is an unfeasibly high figures for others, I suspect the figures have not been repercentaged to exclude don't knows so we can't do a proper swing. Assuming the others are only a bit up on 2005, 8% say, the figures would be something like CON 49%, LAB 20%, LDEM 21% - the same sort of swing the national polls are showing.

Unsurprisingly these figures suggest easy victories for the Conservatives in these seats (though it would be interesting to see the breakdown between those 20 Labour held seats and 9 Lib Dem held seats), but with twenty point Tory leads in the national polls that's no surprise - the key marginals at the moment aren't the top 30 target seats that would see Labour lose their majority. It will be those targets further down the list that will determine if the Conservatives manage to get their own majority and how large it would be.