Conservatives break 50%?
No confirmation yet, so take this with a shovel-load of salt, but a rumour has just reached me of a MORI poll tomorrow showing the Conservatives at 52%, Labour at 24% and the Lib Dems at 12%. Seriously, I've no idea of the provenance of this and have no idea how trustworthy it is, so treat it with due scepticism.
UPDATE: Mike Smithson has had it confirmed by MORI that there is a poll, and it will be released by the PA at midnight. They would not confirm or deny the figures though...
UPDATE 2: Now seems to be true. Mike Smithson says he's got the figures from a journalist who has seen the embargoed press release and Nick Palmer reports being phoned up by ITN looking for a reaction to the poll. Assuming the figures are true the changes from MORI's last poll are CON 52%(+4), LAB 24%(nc), LDEM 12%(-4). The poll was conducted between the 12th and 14th of September, so after Siobhain McDonagh broke ranks, but prior to the collapse of Lehman Brothers: this might be a reaction to Labour's leadership troubles, but the new economic crisis had not yet hit.
The raw changes from MORI's last poll are, of course, somewhat odd. One might expect the Conseratives to benefit from Labour collapsing into disarray, but this instead shows the Lib Dems slumping. There is no obvious reason for this, so even if the figures I've heard are accurate (and it now seems they are) I still think the poll might be a freak result. Still, that won't stop it becoming part of the ever growing narrative about the Labour party in crisis, and in that sense this is horrific, hideous news for Labour.
