ComRes/Sunday Indy - CON 35, LAB 39, LD 11

The monthly online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy is out tomorrow, and has topline figures of CON 35%(-2), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 11%(+1), Others 15%(+1). Changes are from the last online ComRes poll a month ago, rather than their parallel telephone polls. The rest of the poll is the usual collection of agree/disagree statements, which I'm hardly a fan of. For example, one of them finds only 27% of people agree that Labour under Ed Miliband would be better at protecting jobs, with 43% disagreeing. On the face of it this is a surprising finding given that Labour normally have a good lead on the issue of employment, but of course, those disagreeing don't necessarily think the Conservatives would be better than Labour, they could think both parties would be equally good (or bad) - questions like this would be infinitely better done by asking if Miliband/Labour or Cameron/Conservatives would be better at protecting jobs.

A new Opinium survey also surfaced during the week, although the fieldwork was actually done earlier in November, between the 4th and 7th November. For the record though, it had topline figures of CON 34%(+1), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 10%(+1), Others 18%(-1) - so showing a 4 point Labour lead in line with ComRes tonight and the 5 point Lab leads YouGov have been showly lately.

Later tonight we'll have the regular YouGov poll for the Sunday Times. As usual I'll do a proper update on that tomorrow morning.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management