ComRes/Sunday Indy - 37/38/13

There is a new online ComRes poll in tomorrow's Indy on Sunday. Topline figures are CON 37%(-3), LAB 38%(+4), LDEM 13%(-1), Others 12%.

ComRes are currently conducting both online and telephone polls. There are significant effects from both mode and sampling, so I'm drawing comparisons for ComRes polls from their previous poll conducted using the same method - hence my changes are from their last online poll in mid-October, not their last telephone poll in November, which showed figures of CON 35%, LAB 37%, LDEM 16%. Over time of course we'll be able to draw firmer conclusions over whether ComRes's online and telephone results do differ.

ComRes also asked a number of agree or disagree statements on the cuts which showed the normal pattern we've become accustomed to in recent polling - people now tend to see the cuts being done in an unfair way and think they are being done too fast... but a plurality disagreed with the idea that the government was exaggerating the need for them.

Still to come tonight is the weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, and possibly others I'm not aware of yet.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management